Luxembourg Real Estate Observatory: Sales Volumes Drop but Average Prices Rise

According to the Luxembourg Real Estate Observatory, in the first quarter of 2012, the real estate market consisted of the following (per sale prices):

– Apartment sales: 46.35% (€378 million)

– House sales: 37.59% (€307 million)

– Land sales: 26.06% (€131 million)

The 2012 Q1 statistics showed a net contraction in the market compared to the previous quarter, with the number of sales dropping by 35.2% and the sales value dropping by 34.53%. Compared to the same period in 2011, the differences were a drop of 9.28% and 2.78% respectively.

However, we must understand that Q4 sales are traditionally the strongest of the year, and 2011 this was no exception.

Analysing the Trends

From 2011 Q4 to 2012 Q1, house sales fell from 910 units to 623 units sold, a reduction of 31.54%, with sales amounts falling 31.49%, from €447 million to €307 million – showing an actual rise in average prices from €491,209 to €492,777, a slight rise of 0.3% in one quarter.

Compared to 2011 Q1 figures, the 2012 Q1 figures show a drop of 8.65% in the number of sales, yet a rise of 4.36% in the sales amounts. This shows an actual rise of 14% in average prices over the past 12 months.

In the case of apartments, 1,167 units were sold in 2012 Q1 compared to 1,876 in 2011 Q4, a drop of 37.79%; in financial terms, the drop of €257 million represents – 40.49%.

Compared to 2011 Q1 figures, the drop was 13.75% in numbers sold, representing a drop of 13.05% in values. However, the 2012 Q1 figures are back to 2007 numbers.

For plots of land for building, 371 sales were recorded in 2012 Q1 compared to 549 in 2011 Q4, a drop of 32.42% in volume and a corresponding drop of 19.64% in value over the quarter, with increase of 6.92% in volumes and 18.68% in prices in 12 months. The average building plot went for €318k in 2011 Q1, rising 11% in 12 months to €353k.

Further should attention be paid to the fact that statistics concerning land for building contain the figures for land sold on the Kirchberg plateau, which might be of some major influence in the general conclusions and so distort the final result.