Putin’s Conscripts Will Suffer: Intelligence Assessment

The Kremlin acknowledged some of the mass shortcomings facing the 300,000 reservists it is calling up, expressing ‘hope’ the circumstances will improve.

The conscripts that President Vladimir Putin is rushing to the front lines in Ukraine will likely suffer from unsustainably high death rates and ultimately won’t affect Russia’s chances for success, according to new Western assessments of his contentious decision to press 300,000 reservists into service.

The damning analyses of Russia’s mass mobilization effort – which has led to mass protests as well, many of which have turned violent – center on several logistical and bureaucratic failures from the Russian Ministry of Defense down to the local governments. The fundamental flaws reflect a total lack of planning from the Kremlin for the war it launched seven months ago and originally expected would end in victory in days.

Britain’s military intelligence revealed Monday morning that Russia has undermined its own style of training new recruits by having to deploy and send to war the units within its broader brigades that would usually prepare incoming trainees for battle. Western militaries, by contrast, have dedicated training centers outside the deployable combat units that are solely responsible for military-wide training.

And though the Kremlin has said its current mobilization will center on those with combat or trauma experience, many likely have not had military experience for several years.