Electoral Saga In Ukraine: Local Elites Switch To Parliamentary Elections

The survey conducted on April 23-30th showed that the new Ukrainian parliament would consist of the following political parties: “Sluga Narodu” party led by the newly elected President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (27.9%), “Opposition Platform – Za Zhittya” led by Yuriy Boyko, Vadim Rabinovich, and Viktor Medvedchuk (15.8%), the Solidarnist Party of Petro Poroshenko (13.2%), and the Batkivschyna Party of Yulia Tymoshenko (12.4%).

The other parties so far have not enough public support to enter the next parliament: the Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko – 4.9%, “Gromadyanska Pozitsiya” of Anatoliy Grytsenko and Dmytro Dobrodomov – 4.8%, “Syla I Chest” of Ihor Smeshko – 4.2%, “Svoboda” of Oleg Tyagnybok – 3.8%, “Opposition Bloc – The Party of Peace and Development” (Eugeniy Muraev, Oleksandr Vilkul, Vadim Novinskiy) – 1.9%.

Other parties that are traditionally represented in the surveys including “Samopomich” (Andriy Sadoviy), UKROP (Taras Batenko), etc. have virtually no chances to win the parliamentary elections.

The results of the survey are shown in the tables below.

What will be the choice of yours if the parliamentary elections are to be held this Sunday? (%, answers of those who already decided to vote and defined their choice)

In regards of major trends in the new political season in Ukraine, major heed should be given to the following aspects:

Due to high politicization of Ukrainian society and in contrast with the previous years Ukraine seems to feature no traditional summer break in political life. What’s more, official start of parliamentary campaign is scheduled for July 28th, which would also add up to bigger activity of Ukrainian politicians.

The volume of voters’ support enjoyed by political parties led by Voloymyr Zelenskiy and Petro Poroshenko resemble the figures their leaders got after the first round of presidential elections. At the same time, higher performance of Opposition Platform – Za Zhittya party can be mainly explained by growing public demand for politicians that make quick settlement of Donbas conflict and restoration of peace in Ukraine the major points of their political agenda.

Low performance of The Radical Party of Oleg Lyashko, “Gromadyanska Pozitsiya” and some other parties that are staying close to entering the next parliament can be easily overridden in the course of summer months. Taking into account the error margin of 2.2% their chances of further parliamentary life remain quite realistic.

The international research center BURI (The Belgium-Ukraine Research Institute) conducted the survey in Ukraine on April 23-30, 2019. Total quantity of respondents equaled 2024 individuals (representative sample). The survey method – combined interviews. Error margin is 2.2%.

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